Sports Stats Literacy

How to read sports numbers with care: sample size, splits, and what a statistic does not prove.

Correlation Is Not a Cause in Sports

Two sports numbers can move together because of pace, minutes, or selection. Moving together is not a cause.

November 7, 2026

Before you repeat a sports number, check the count, the denominator, the roster, and whether it is being asked to do too much.

November 7, 2026

A statistic describes the roster and the rules that produced it. An injury or a lineup change can retire the number.

November 7, 2026

Extreme sports numbers often include luck, so the next stretch tends to be less extreme. That is not a debt the game owes.

November 7, 2026

Wins can outrun the scoring margin. A simple runs-squared sketch shows when a record is ahead of the underlying gap.

November 7, 2026

Home and away splits mix skill, parks, travel, and small counts. Read the number of games before the gap.

November 7, 2026

A few games are a noisy sample. A hot week can appear without any change in skill, and it does not set a price.

November 7, 2026

Batting average is hits divided by at-bats. It ignores walks, and a short hot week is a small sample.

November 7, 2026